My Prediction: In 2020, MLB Will Return With Fans or Not at All

The way I see it, one of two things is going to happen with this year’s MLB season. Either MLB will return on approximately July 1 with an abridged but otherwise normal (fans in the crowd, minimal to no Covid-19 testing of players, etc.) situation, or there will be no 2020 MLB season at all. What do I think SHOULD happen? Option 1. What do I think WILL happen? Option 2. Please allow me to discuss…

Over the past two months, some of you might have viewed some of my five anti-lockdown blog posts/videos.  My core belief this entire time has been that we should be allowing the at-risk – the elderly and those with key pre-existing conditions – to self-quarantine while allowing the rest of us to live our lives, to develop herd immunity for Covid-19, and to keep businesses afloat. Clearly, the ship for my plan sailed away two months ago, but the logic remains for my baseball discussion here.

I can be a very long-winded person, but sometimes I hear an idea that is so far-fetched, so improbable, or so ridiculous that my answer is a simple, one-word “No”. Well, when MLB first floated the idea of playing the full season in Arizona with only the players themselves in the crowd and with massive amounts of testing, my full answer was a one-word “No”. Now, the latest proposal for MLB would have teams playing in their home stadia but with the following caveats: 1) Fans would not be in attendance. 2) Players would be tested frequently for Covid-19 (I do not have the specifics here.). 3) Players cannot use Ubers nor other ride-sharing apps. 4) Players cannot high-five. 5) Coaches have to keep 6 feet from players. There is much more on this list, but you get the idea. My answer to that proposal: “No, but with explanations.”

While I find that whole list above to be rather ridiculous, my key sticking point is #1. The MLBPA is, by most accounts, the strongest players’ union in the four major North American sports leagues, and this union is the only one that has avoided a salary cap to this point. In fact, the salary-cap issue might be the financial issue about which the MLBPA is most passionate. This issue is especially relevant now, because owners have made a proposal to players in which the two sides – owners and players – would agree to split the 2020 revenue in defined percentages. However, many players see these defined percentages as the gateway to a true a salary cap, in that a team’s salary cap would hypothetically be set as a percent of league-wide revenues. In MLB, you never hear of such percentages because teams can spend as much of their revenue for players as they want. (Granted, the luxury tax acts as a fairly strong de facto salary cap, as the Mookie Betts trade proved, but the MLBPA has nevertheless remained vehemently against a true salary cap.)

Why are owners suddenly suggesting a revenue split? It is because players and owners are looking to agree to a deal for a situation in which there will be no fans in the seats. The entire collective bargaining agreement (CBA), I believe, assumes that fans will be in the seats for games. Thus, there is no answer in the current contractual language for how players and owners should handle revenue and salaries with no fans. As a result, these two sides, who often have a contentious relationship, have to figure out an answer on the fly. This is a rough, rough place in which the owners and players find themselves. Do not get me wrong though. I feel much worse for the tens of millions of people who have lost their jobs or businesses over the past two months than I do for these players and owners. However, this is a sports blog, and I am here to talk sports. Plus, just because someone else is in much worse pain than you are does not mean that your pain goes away.

We find ourselves in a position where players look bad if they worry about making only $3 million this year instead of $12 million. We also find ourselves in a position where owners look bad if they complain about losing out on much more than $12 million this year in profit. However, just because those optics are bad does not mean that either side – players or owners - is eager to give in to the other side. Plus, if you are expecting to earn several-million dollars more than you end up earning in a given year, it is quite possible that you could end up in rough financial shape. People make financial decisions based upon current wealth and expected income, and, with baseball having guaranteed contracts, I am sure there are plenty of players and owners who have already spent money that they figured (incorrectly) to be earning in 2020. Thus, because of that logic, I do not begrudge either side – players or owners – for trying to earn the best financial deal that they can with each other.

I do begrudge Blake Snell for complaining about the hazards of playing baseball in the Covid-19 era. I have read, at this point, probably 500 articles about Covid-19, and all data points show that, unless you are in an at-risk group (elderly, obese, of major heart condition, etc.), your hospitalization and fatality risks of Covid-19 are at or below the risks of suffering those outcomes from the flu. MLB players are not in these at-risk groups; they are some of the healthiest people in the world. If Blake Snell is risking his life by playing, then he is risking his life anywhere he goes in winter, given that he could contract the flu, which is slightly more dangerous than Covid-19 for someone of his age and health. This is why, while I have been promoting a quarantine of solely at-risk individuals, I have also been extolling the virtues of having pro sports keep playing to keep up our morale. Having an NCAA Tournament in which players honored loved ones who were quarantined and having NBA and NHL seasons and playoffs doing the same would have been a nice, logical thing to do. MLB absolutely should have also opened its season with this approach….but alas, none of these organizations actually listened to me, and here we are.

We are now at a place where MLB is trying to resuscitate a season that might be lost for dead. We are also at a place where owners are trying to persuade the players to accept a deal containing the #1 thing – revenue-sharing – that players have always resisted. I understand why the players do not want this. If you think about the #1 thing that you do not want to give up under any condition, that is what the players are being asked to do here. I understand their point. However, every day that passes without the players and owners agreeing to a plan brings us closer to completely losing the 2020 season.

Thus, what is the solution? I see only one: Fans in the seats. As I have been saying all along, rather than locking down the world, we should be allowing people to assess their own risk and decide where to go. Let people decide on their own if they should go to baseball games. Many of the people who would be at a health risk attending games this season ALREADY choose not to go to games…..because of those very same risk factors! Sure, there would be some at-risk people who would have gone to games in the past but would not anymore. However, that is probably not a huge group. Sure, there would also be some people who are not in at-risk groups who would fear going to games. That is fine; nobody is forcing those people to go to games. However, regardless of the sizes of the 2020 crowds, having fans in the seats would presumably allow the owners and players to play more or less by their standard CBA, albeit with some type of prorating of salaries to account for the abridged schedule.  Plus, with fans in the seats, the amount of revenue (which could become owners' profits and parts of players' salaries) would be much greater than in a scenario without fans.  That would obviously be good for both players and owners.  Of course, I should add that, from a fan's perspective, pro sports are much more enjoyable to watch - even on TV - if there are fans in the seats.

Let us now move on to another issue that I have with the owners' proposal. I do not believe that this testing thing is going to fly. Far more people who test positive for Covid-19 are asymptomatic than are symptomatic. We know that; that was the premise behind the lockdown in the first place. Thus, what happens if a seemingly healthy Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Gleyber Torres all asymptomatically test positive for Covid-19 at the same time? Are we really going to expect them to quarantine for 14 days? Yankees fans, you can tell me right now, “Of course we should expect that!”, but I would believe it when I hear it out of your mouth in July or August, and you are left watching Tyler Wade bat cleanup.

Of course, I would not be making this point if I felt that these asymptomatic people were of danger to those around them. To the contrary, the players are going to be around only others who are not at risk of a serious bout with Covid-19. Thus, these players are not of danger to others, as long as the at-risk people are self-quarantining. (Yes, this does mean that some managers and clubhouse staff would have to work remotely, but I would rather handle that issue than try to handle all of the other issues that MLB is proposing) Thus, as long as the players are not visibly sick, let them play. Moreover, unless a Covid vaccine is developed (not a guarantee), herd immunity is the way to handle Covid-19. Allowing healthy players and fans in stadiums can contribute to this herd immunity. I should add though that, if a player WANTS to be tested and quarantined (if he has Covid-19), that would be fine. I am thinking here of a hypothetical case in which a player has an at-risk family member and would not be able to have that family member quarantine away from the player.

Moving on, another reason why I do not foresee the players collectively agreeing to Covid testing is that all steroid testing is collectively bargained. I do not buy that players will so easily agree to additional testing, especially when it could lead to a situation in which they feel healthy but have to self-quarantine. Additional testing also gives owners more control over players, and that is not something that sits well with players.

Thus, to me, the answer is simple. MLB should go back to normal, albeit with an abridged schedule. All arguments to the contrary are made out of panic, not logic, which is ironically how we ended up here to begin. One has to remember why pro sports shut down in the first place. The NBA, NHL, MLB, and NCAA panicked and shut down because of the Rudy Gobert incident, when I feel that these leagues should have instead advocated the “at-risk self-quarantine” and continued operations. Instead, the pro leagues backed themselves into a corner, because they did not give great indicators for why they shut down nor when they would restart. They did not shut down “for two weeks to flatten the curve”. They shut down out of panic and a strong risk aversion, and, since they did not give metrics on why they shut down, they also did not give any metrics for when they would restart. I believe that this is why the league is now afraid to restart.

If MLB is afraid to return to business as usual, what metric would change the opinions of baseball’s leaders? Two months of data points all show the same thing; players and young-to-middle-aged healthy fans bear infinitesimal risk with Covid-19. Thus, the leagues should be playing, and fans should be at the games. If instead fans are not now allowed at games, and players have to do massive testing now; when will these practices change? When nobody has Covid anymore? When we have a vaccine? Those things might never happen.

That is why we have to start baseball (and the other sports) up again. I have stressed baseball here, because that league is in the most dire situation. The NHL and NBA could theoretically start their playoffs in August, crown champions at the end of September, and back up the starts (in staggered fashion) to their next few seasons (possibly shortening some of those seasons, which the NBA, NHL, and MLB should have done years ago anyway). Because weather is not a factor for those sports, those leagues have flexibility. However, if baseball does not figure out a solution soon, we will wave bye-bye to the 2020 season.

A lost season would be catastrophic. It would stink for us as fans, but the economic impact would be monumental. Actually, losing half a season already has monumental impact, but losing a full season would obviously be worse. Many, many people’s lives depend upon having fans at games. Think about ushers, concession-stand workers, parking-lot attendants, bartenders and waiters at near-ballpark restaurants, and so on. When one factors in the multiplier effect involved when those people spend their money, one can see how much the lack of sports hurts our economy, on top of the massive wreck that is the rest of the economy right now.

Thus, it is important for baseball (and other sports) to return. However, I do not foresee a situation in which players and owners can agree to terms if there is going to be massive Covid-19 testing but no fans in the seats. The fans are a huge reason why players are paid so handsomely, and, without the fans, I believe the financial gap between players’ and owners’ demands is far too large to bridge. Thus, I implore MLB and all involved governments to allow the stadiums to open to fans. Unfortunately, I expect MLB and governments to be too afraid to have fans come to the parks. Thus, I fear that we are going to end up with no season. Deep down, that is what I think will happen. However, I maintain hope that MLB does instead follow my suggestions and gives us an abridged season with fans. It is time for us to return to normalcy.