It Is Very Tough to Fix a Team With an Atrocious Bullpen

The Mets’ bullpen is a complete train wreck and is the biggest reason why the team is so terrible, sporting a record of 40-50.  Only the Marlins are below the Mets in the National League standings.  There are many ways to measure the Mets’ bullpen ineptitude, but I will highlight the keys:


-The Mets lead the majors in blown saves (21).


-The Mets have the lowest save percentage (50%) in the majors.


-The Mets have the third-highest bullpen E.R.A. (5.57) in the league.


-The Mets’ bullpen has pitched the fourth-fewest innings (294) in the majors.  


-The Mets’ bullpen has the fourth-highest batting-average-against (.272) and second-highest OPS-against (.834) in the majors.


As you read that list, you should note the outlier, the one positive stat – that the Mets’ bullpen has pitched the fourth-fewest innings in the majors.  Yes, that is good when taken by itself, but the stat also shows that one cannot blame the bullpen’s woes on overtaxation. 

Furthermore, the eye test also validates the premise that the pen is not overtaxed.  I have watched Mets manager Mickey Callaway extend starting pitchers longer this year than he would have last year and longer than most of his contemporaries would push guys this year. While there is plenty to criticize with Callaway, the man deserves credit in terms of pushing his pitchers.  Continuing with the eye test; I watched the Mets lose five games, in all of which the Mets had multi-run leads, in late June.  If I previously had any doubt as to where to cast the most blame for this Mets season, that stretch erased said doubt.

Anyway, we all know that the Mets’ bullpen is awful.  While the pen has had a relatively small workload, compared to other bullpens, the Mets have still “entrusted” the pen with 36.7% of the team’s innings pitched this year.  If you give a terrible bullpen more than a third of your team’s innings, your team probably will not have a good season.  That’s baseball, Susan.  The question though is whom is to blame for this predicament, and that is a tough question to answer.  


Let us return to Mickey Callaway.  Yes, I would love to see the Mets replace this guy with Joe Girardi.  I would sign up for that in a heartbeat, but I think Girardi would have earned the Mets no more than 2 or 3 more wins than Callaway has so far this year.  While there were several times last year when Callaway made head-scratching pitching changes, he has made only three or four changes this year that I feel have been very bad decisions.  However, the baseline number of bad pitching changes a manager makes over 90 games is not zero.  The average manager makes three of four bad changes too.  (Note that when I say “bad”, I mean with foresight, not with hindsight.) 

I listened to 10 years of talk radio when Joe Girardi managed in New York, and he makes some questionable pitching changes too. All managers make questionable pitching changes.  When teams make an average of 3 to 4 pitching changes per night, it is only natural that some of those moves will be questionable.  Thus, the moral of the story here is that I do not blame Mickey Callaway for the Mets’ bullpen disaster.


Moving on, the next candidate for blame is Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen.  I do not like this guy.  I don’t care for his corporate speak, such as when he talked about how the Mets are not heeding their “mission statement”, a nauseating comment for a baseball fan to hear. 

I also don’t care for the fact that he threw a chair during a meeting with Callaway and others after yet another bullpen meltdown.  A good leader knows that he brought in the pitchers who are pitching badly and thus should not be blaming his subordinates when those pitchers falter.  Clearly, Brodie is not a good leader.


However, I cannot fault him for the approach he took to assembling the bullpen.  In the offseason, Van Wagenen was asked to restock a bullpen that contained two legitimate pieces – Seth Lugo, whom is a strong reliever but needs a great deal of rest, and Robert Gsellman, who is probably underqualified as a Top-4 reliever on a team but fine as a back-end guy.  Thus, what did Van Wagenen do?  He brought in three key relievers – Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Justin Wilson.  


We all know what an epic disaster the Diaz trade has been, but I admit that I liked the deal at the time it was brokered.  Van Wagenen acquired a young flamethrower in Diaz, who was coming off a 57-save season in Seattle.  Sure, the Mets had to take a risk on adding five years of an aging Robinson Cano, and they had also to trade away prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, plus Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak.  Let’s now talk about what is and is not revisionist history.  Nobody was worried that Jay Bruce, coming off a season with a .223 average and 9 homers, was going to revert to his 2012 form, as he appears to have done.  Then again, to be fair, nobody knew he would end up on the Phillies where he could not only torment the Mets but also play in a stadium that inflates everyone’s power numbers.  What is not revisionist history, however, is to suggest that Diaz might decline upon moving from Seattle to the bright lights of New York. 

It is also not revisionist history to suggest that post-steroid, aging Cano, would be a bust.  Meanwhile, time will tell what the two prospects become.


However, I said at the time of the trade that the Mets were taking a worthwhile risk.  Had the Mets not pulled the trigger on this trade, the only other top-flight closer available would have been Craig Kimbrel.  I would have preferred signing Kimbrel and not making the Cano/Diaz trade, but Kimbrel looked bad in last year’s playoffs, was likely warn down by the playoff run, and was entering his 10^th season in the majors (as opposed to Diaz, who is in his fourth season).  As we stare down Edwin Diaz’s 5.50 ERA and countless meltdowns this year (and the complete disaster of everything with Cano), we could wonder what might have been with Kimbrel. 

Then again, four appearances into his Cubs season Kimbrel is pitching to an E.R.A above 12.  Sure, that will not last, but the fact remains that Kimbrel could absolutely have been a disaster this year in New York too.


Meanwhile, let us not forget the Mets’ Familia and Wilson signings.  Although the old blog for which I wrote is no more, I did write an article last year about the fact that Jeurys Familia was much better pitcher for the Mets than Mets fans typically remember.  When the Mets brought him back this year after sending him to Oakland at last year’s trade deadline, I assumed Familia could be a reliable set-up man for Diaz.  I did not foresee him pitching to an E.R.A of 7.50.  As for Justin Wilson, he should have rounded out quite a foursome with Diaz, Familia, and Lugo.  Plus, Justin Wilson’s being a lefty would have provided him additional value.  Unfortunately, Wilson has spent most of the season on the injured list.


Thus, as much Van Wagenen’s personality annoys me, I cannot blame him for his bullpen moves this offseason….and this is the conundrum with assembling bullpens.  Unless you are talking about Mariano Rivera, the year-to-year variance of relievers’ performance is enormous.  These guys often throw 60-70 innings, the equivalent of a third of a starting pitcher’s season, in a given year.  That is such a small sample size, yet, over time needed to gain a significant sample size (3-5 years, perhaps); the pitcher’s abilities and health can change greatly for better or for worse.  


Therefore, does anyone really know what to expect out of relievers from year to year?  It is easy now to rip Van Wagenen and praise Brian Cashman (who let’s be honest, is an incredible GM) for their bullpen moves this offseason, but is it crazy to think of an alternate reality in which Adam Ottavino and Zach Britton are having horrible seasons in the Bronx while the Familia/Diaz/Wilson trio dominates in Queens? 

It really isn’t.  Everyone knows that bullpens are year-to-year propositions, which is why it is so tough to construct, manage, or root for a team with an atrocious bullpen.  I am usually loathe to blame anything in life on luck; but I do believe that bad luck is the biggest reason for the Mets’ awful bullpen.


Thus, how do the Mets fix their bullpen next year?  They need better luck.  Yeah, I realize this is not a great approach.  Actually, my dream is to return to the days where starting pitchers regularly go 7, 8, or 9 innings, but we are not there.  Thus, the Mets’ options for improving the bullpen next year are either hoping that Diaz, Wilson, and Familia get back on track or unloading those guys and bringing in three additional high-variance guys.  I don’t know the answer.  You don’t know the answer.  Brodie doesn’t know the answer.  Regardless of Van Wagenen’s choice, the Mets and their fans have to hope that this year’s bad bullpen luck turns into next year’s good bullpen luck.  That is the best we can do, and that is the frustrating part of rooting for a team with an atrocious bullpen.